Methodology

How BonusEdge's Analysis Works

This page explains how BonusEdge turns the terms you enter into simulated results, and what those results can and cannot establish. It applies to both the Bonus Audit and the Deposit Optimizer. For instructions on using either tool, see its own page.

What BonusEdge models

Both tools simulate many attempts at a casino bonus under the terms and game assumptions you provide. The Bonus Audit evaluates one entered setup: a deposit, bonus, game and playing plan. The Deposit Optimizer instead tests eligible deposit and starting-bet combinations under entered rules and compares them. Neither tool automatically starts the other, and the Audit doesn't search for a better deposit or bet size on its own.

A simulation is not a live look at a casino's system. It is a model of what could happen under the entered terms and selected game assumptions.

The inputs that shape a result

Three groups of inputs can affect a run:

  • The offer's terms: deposit, bonus amount, wagering multiplier and basis, game contribution, bonus type, maximum bet, maximum cashout and any withdrawal fee that applies. You can enter terms manually or review values proposed by the optional terms scanner from text you supply and, where available, selected casino data. The scanner does not independently verify current casino terms, so check its proposed values.
  • The game: you can select a listed game, enter RTP (return to player) and volatility yourself, or use a Generic Slot profile. The simulation uses RTP-calibrated generic payout profiles based on volatility. It does not use a specific slot's proprietary payout mathematics or PAR sheet. A listed slot's RTP and volatility may differ from the version a particular casino offers.
  • The playing setup: bet size and, when supported by the plan and applicable to the offer, rules such as an early-withdrawal condition.

How wagering and game contribution work

Wagering basis is what the multiplier applies to: the bonus, the deposit, deposit plus bonus, or a custom amount you specify. Nominal wagering is that base multiplied by the wagering multiplier.

Game contribution is the share of each wager that counts toward the requirement. It changes how much must actually be staked: effective wagering equals nominal wagering divided by the contribution rate expressed as a decimal. A game contributing 50% requires twice the staking of one contributing 100%.

If the wagering basis is unclear, conflicting or not found, the engine blocks a normal clearing simulation rather than treating the requirement as zero. A game with a confirmed 0% contribution likewise cannot clear the modeled requirement. If no usable contribution rate is supplied, the calculation assumes 100% and discloses that assumption. It does not verify that the casino actually awards 100% contribution.

A worked example

Suppose there is a $100 deposit, a $100 bonus, 40× wagering on deposit plus bonus, and 70% game contribution:

  • Nominal wagering: ($100 + $100) × 40 = $8,000
  • Effective wagering at 70% contribution: $8,000 ÷ 0.70 ≈ $11,428.57 in required stakes

This arithmetic shows how much would need to be staked for $8,000 of wagering to count. It is not an expected loss, a likely personal outcome or a simulated result. It does not mean the player will have enough balance to finish. The simulation separately estimates outcomes under the entered game and playing assumptions.

What happens in one simulated attempt

Each attempt follows the entered deposit, bonus, bet size, wagering target and applicable modeled rules. Those rules can include bonus type, maximum cashout, a percentage withdrawal fee and, where supported and applicable, an early-withdrawal condition.

BonusEdge repeats the attempt many times. An attempt may end when the playable balance runs out, wagering completes, or a supported early-withdrawal condition is met. If an applicable final-target rule is enabled, play can continue after wagering completes until that target is reached or the balance runs out.

How the Bonus Audit summarizes results

The Audit can show the amount required to complete the bonus, the chance of losing the playable balance, the typical result (median net outcome), the chance of profit, and the average profit/loss (mean net outcome), along with further measures where relevant. Definitions of its core results are on the Bonus Audit page.

Two ideas matter when reading these numbers:

  • Net cash profit is the modeled withdrawable amount minus the cash deposit. Chance of profit is the share of simulated attempts ending with a withdrawable amount above that deposit.
  • A positive average does not mean most attempts win. A few large outcomes can lift the mean while the median and chance of profit tell a different story. Read the average alongside the typical result and the chance of losing your balance.

How the Deposit Optimizer compares setups

The Optimizer tests eligible deposit and starting-bet combinations and checks its finalists with 100,000 simulated sessions per finalist. It presents three decision views:

  • Maximum expected net cash profit: the qualifying confirmed setup with the highest modeled average withdrawal across all sessions, including sessions with no withdrawal, minus the cash deposit.
  • Minimum capital required: the smallest deposit among confirmed setups that pass a positive lower-confidence-bound test for simulated expected profit.
  • Lowest bust risk: the lowest modeled chance of exhausting the balance before the applicable withdrawal condition among qualifying confirmed setups. It is a relative comparison; the absolute bust probability can still be high.

If no confirmed setup passes the positive lower-confidence-bound test, the Optimizer can still display the best available comparison for each objective. It is not a recommendation to take the bonus, and the result can carry a “Skip” outcome.

Sampling uncertainty is not the same as model uncertainty

The Optimizer's confidence interval addresses sampling uncertainty within the entered model: the randomness associated with running a finite number of simulated sessions. It does not capture wrong bonus terms, outdated slot information, omitted casino restrictions or limitations of the generic payout model. It is not a prediction range for one person's session.

Running more simulated sessions can reduce random sampling variation. It does not fix incorrect terms, an inaccurate RTP figure, a missed restriction or the limits of a generic model standing in for a specific slot's real mathematics.

What you still need to verify

BonusEdge does not independently verify a casino's current offer, exact game version, licensing, solvency, eligibility decisions, or whether a withdrawal will be approved and paid. It does not accept wagers or guarantee profit.

Before relying on any result, check the casino's current terms, the in-game RTP and rules, your eligibility, and our Disclaimer. For help using BonusEdge, visit Contact Support; see Pricing for plan limits. If gambling stops feeling like a choice, visit Responsible Gambling.